We take Born to Please back to Nottingham with a vu to winning their ten furlong Amateur Handicap with our Mare for the second season running; she won last year's iteration off four pounds lower and will have, for the first time since the resumption, the ground she needs this pm; she will be well ridden this afternoon by Harriet Tucker and she has something of an each way chance, the key to how 'strong' that chance is revolves around the way the race pans out in practice; but she should run well at a reasonable each way price.
At Kempton Liberty Bay runs in a Nursery for the first time; as it usually is with Class Six and Class Five Nurseries this evening's jobbie is populated with horses who are unexposed and it is difficult to know the extent of their real ability; to some extent that applies to Liberty Bay, who has always shown ability and we expect her to continue to improve, something that has not escaped the perception of our friend the OH and she is handicapped right at the top end of what she has actually achieved on the track; the positives this evening are that she is much, much better drawn than when just caught at Dunstall Park and that David will get the best out of her; she goes to Kempton with a degree of confidence that she will run really well and she has an excellent each way chance as long as we aren't running into next Season's Portland Handicap winner
Willingly ran no sort of race at Chelmsford in the middle of September and the right approach is to draw a line through that (the Essex version of the polytrack might ride a good bit quicker than that found in Sunbury); dropped to 57 as a consequence she has a fair chance at the weights, particularly if she were to achieve the same level as performance when fourth at Sandown in July; we have put the pieces back on this evening and she goes to Sunbury to bounce back from Chelmsford and be competitive in a handicap that for the most part is populated with horses that might not be in much form relative to their ability; most of this seems to have been recognised by the 'market' and she has been consistently backed overnight.
Which brings us to our spiffing staying Mare, Point in Time; the truncated (and essentially difficult) season revolving around the wider national circumstance has not been particularly kind to her and we have not really seen the best of a Mare who last year was on the fringes of Black Type; her generous Owner may well have her covered in the Spring but we hope to have one more day in the sun before that; the bit of good that has come from this season is that she is now down to 76 having been really competitive off 80 over c&d a year ago, witness the video here; we are pretty confident that she is effective over 16 furlongs and she and her best friend David have an each way chance of outrunning her double figure price.
National Velvet runs for the second time at Lingfield tomorrow afternoon, in the evening Arabian Oasis and The Stalking Moon go to Southwell and Bird to Love to Chelmsford.